Why three failed votes is not necessarily a failure

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell received a fair amount of flak this week for his attempts to move forward on the DHS funding bill that expires at the end of the month. Republicans failed to invoke cloture on the DHS funding bill for the third time in three days, raising speculation about a potential shutdown of US security agencies. Sarah Binder has a great piece at the Monkey Cage explaining the strategy. She argues McConnell’s attempts are not unprecedented or even a failure. Multiple attempts to stop debate on a bill has, at times, put pressure on the filibustering minority to compromise. In this sense McConnell’s is attempting to win a message battle by framing Democrats as obstructionists.

The messaging battle is an important one. However, it’s also a situation where neither party will likely emerge as the victor. In fact both parties win on this particular issue. Republicans are presumably gaining support for their attempt to battle the President on immigration. Meanwhile, Democrats are gaining support among their base by obstructing attempts to roll back what has been a very popular executive action among their base. In other words, it is certainly a messaging battle but it is one that both sides will win. McConnell isn’t winning at the expense of Democrats. Rather, he’s likely bolstering both sides while shouldering accusations that Republicans cannot govern.

The irony is that by failing to stop a filibuster, McConnell is moving closer to governing. As Binder points out, provoking multiple votes on DHS and the immigration rider demonstrates that moving forward on this bill through the normal process cannot work. Democrats are resolute and they have no incentive to back down. Republicans already knew this, signaling weeks ago that they did not have the votes to advance a DHS bill with the immigration rider.

So why use three votes? In addition to demonstrating that this is not a viable strategy, it gives McConnell leeway on his right. Had McConnell taken the obvious action needed to pass DHS from the start – stripping the immigration rider and passing a clean funding bill – he would have been attacked for appeasing Democrats. By demonstrating that their opposition is not avoidable, he eases some of that right-flank pressure.

And lastly, three votes buys McConnell time to strike an agreement to avoid a shutdown. The Senate is an institution of negotiation and unanimous consent. Behind closed doors McConnell is likely searching for an agreement between his conference and Democrats that strips the rider from the bill, offers conservatives the opportunity to make their stand on the issue with a non-passable amendment (60-vote threshold), and a time agreement that ensure the Senate passes DHS well before the funding deadline.

The headlines are not pretty now. But in an odd way, by failing to invoke cloture on Democrats’ filibuster McConnell is likely doing more to move forward than the media are giving him credit for.

That said, this latest episode continues a growing trend for Republicans. They continue to show a penchant for putting themselves in unwinnable political situations. Unless they become more strategically savvy, self-inflicted wounds may become this majority’s calling card. How they manage the upcoming cliffs on the debt ceiling, the Highway Trust Fund, and the Export-Import Bank reauthorization will be telling as we continue to inch toward 2016.